Green Shoots

The Federal Election has come and gone, leaving the result most business owners and investors were expecting but will the confidence instilled by a more stable Government bring the green shoots Australia needs?

In the week leading up to the election when our Nation’s fate looked sealed firmly in blue tape, the consumer confidence number started to climb, rising by 4.7% in September from August and sitting at 110.6, above the 100 level where optimists outnumber pessimists.

The business confidence numbers also strengthened significantly in this period, with the index rising in August to its highest point since May 2011.  The consecutive cuts in the cash rate may have helped, but seemingly more important were the anticipated political changes.

Nationally, housing is also providing a badly needed sign of life in our economy, with six consecutive weeks of 80%+ auction clearances in Sydney at the time of writing, and Melbourne achieving their highest rate since 2010, at 76% .

Equities, which were struggling under the weight of the Syrian crisis and the end to quantitative easing in the US in August, seem to have lifted their tone with the news that Russia and America plan to do everything they can to avoid full blown conflict.

Could these be the green shoots of Spring in our economy that so many are looking for to invest?

Over the coming three months we are looking for three shifts in the market:

We expect the USA will continue down the forewarned path of reducing its quantitative easing, bringing to fruition something the market already expects.  This could cause some market instability around announcements.

We see the continued weakness in commodity prices and Asian markets driving a gradual and painful weakness across the mining economy in Australia and a continued flow through to other sectors.

And the handbrake coming off Australian business confidence, as the Liberal Government starts to make their policy changes.

One big hope we all have is that the recent reduction in the $A dollar will act as a natural stimulus improving investment and export growth that stimulates our business economy.